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CPM Seasonality
Revenue Optimization

CPM Seasonality Everything Publishers Need to Know

9 min read
Rohan Sharma
January 24, 2025
January 24, 2025

Let’s accept the truth – CPM fluctuates, and there can be no specific reason behind it. It is also true that these fluctuations often happen during specific times of the year and can have a significant impact on the publishers’ ad revenue. 

Knowing the underlying causes behind the fluctuations in CPMs enables publishers to predict the shifts before they occur. This article will explore how the CPM changes throughout the year, the most common trends, and how publishers can optimize their programmatic ad stack to make up for dwindling CPMs during low-performing months.

CPM and Seasonality

CPM refers to “Cost per Mille” and translates into cost per thousand ad impressions. As one of the most common pricing models, CPM represents the amount a publisher gets from the advertisers for every thousand views on the ad served on their website. 

Factors like ad format, size, viewability, traffic, geography, device, seasonality*, and many more play an important role in deciding the CPM. While publishers can get high CPM by optimizing specific attributes like ad formats, viewability, etc., there are others, like seasonality, over which publishers have no control. 

*Seasonality refers to any predictable trend or variation that occurs at the same time on a YoY basis. Since the events occur regularly, it is easy to predict their arrival. 

Across the industry, publishers experience CPMs rise and fall during some specific periods within a year. This phenomenon is called CPM seasonality.

What Causes CPM Seasonality?

CPM seasonal trends are significantly impacted by advertisers’ budgets and users’ behavior. Advertisers tend to invest more during the most profitable times of the year and generally towards the end of quarters. Similarly, digital footfall increases during holidays like Christmas or special commercial events like Black Friday. 

During holidays, users are more likely to buy new products. Because of such traffic surges, advertisers find a large volume of high-intent users to display the ads to. Since the users are already in the mood to make purchases, advertisers get better than average results from their ads during such seasons. Hence the competition among advertisers increases and the CPMs shoot up. Billions of dollars are spent just via the e-commerce channel during festive seasons. 

Similarly, advertisers tend to readjust their budgets at the start of a quarter or month. Thus, ad spending decreases, resulting in lower CPMs.

Why Should Publishers Care About CPM Seasonality?

Understanding seasonal trends help publishers make better decisions and prepare early. For example, based on the patterns, publishers can pre-plan their content calendar, experiment with different revenue streams, or optimize their website.

Knowing the patterns of CPM fluctuations also enables publishers to determine whether they are occurring due to seasonal changes or an internal fault within the website. Knowledge about the cause can save publishers much time.

Let’s understand this in detail. As is the trend, publishers usually expect to see growth in ad revenue during Q4. With several cultural events like Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas, etc., falling within the quarter, the surge in online traffic and, thus, demand is evident. This means any publisher witnessing slow or no revenue growth during the quarter is incurring opportunity costs.

The knowledge of seasonal trends here thus will help publishers look for the shortcomings within their optimization strategies or revenue streams. It also helps publishers to prepare ahead of the seasonal fluctuations and mitigate their effect on revenue.

Header Bidding: An all-time Solution for Higher CPM

No matter what season it is, header bidding will always help publishers in increasing their CPM. Header bidding helps publishers get access to several demand sources. This, in turn, helps publishers increase their CPM and maximize their ad revenue while navigating through the seasonal ups and downs. Even if publishers do not sell a large chunk of their inventory on the open web, they should still try header bidding during the slow months.

Additional Insights

Publishers should always be prepared for CPM seasonality. When the traffic, CPM, and revenues are low, and there is nothing left to do, publishers can constantly shift their focus to less urgent activities that considerably impact website performance. Publishers can work on improving the site’s UI, strengthening the website’s SEO, experimenting with content, or improving the site’s speed. They can also improve ad viewability and experiment with different ad positions that can potentially increase ad revenues.

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